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Rolling settlements and Options
In today's scenario the market is full of uncertainty on top of that the new events are adding fuel to the fire. The age-old practice of badla has been replaced by rolling settlement and new derivative instruments like Options have been introduced in the market.
Lets see what the new changes are and how they work with the help of examples wherever applicable. Rolling Settlement:
Rolling settlement stands for a settlement mechanism in a stock exchange where outstanding transactions are settled on the day-to-day basis. Unlike in the old system where trades during the five-day settlement period were aggregated and the net outstanding positions were settled, in Rolling Settlements, trades done on a single day are settled separately from the trades of other day on Trade days. The netting of trades is done only for the day and not for multiple days. In Rolling Settlement, settlement is carried out on a daily basis. Also Rolling Settlements in any capital markets represent best international practice as well. Working of rolling settlement: We have a "T + 3" settlement period for this system. In simpler words, it means that if you purchase shares, say on a Monday, then you will have to pay up for your purchase on Thursday (trade day plus three working days). You will also receive the shares that you have purchased on the day you pay up. The critical factor that differentiates rolling settlement from the previous weekly settlement is that previously you could sell the shares you bought on a Monday, on the following day or on any other day during the week before your transaction was actually settled. However in the rolling settlement if you sell the shares you bought on a Monday on the following day, i.e. on Tuesday, then it would become a "short position". So if you do not have shares to deliver, you will need to borrow them. You cannot offset your Monday's purchase with your Tuesday's sell.
Presently all the stocks traded are stocks under the compulsory rolling settlement (CRS).
Settlement under rolling settlement system In the old system the exchange looked at the outstanding net positions to be settled at the end of the five-day settlement period. Then on the Thursday of the following week there would be " Pay In ", where people who bought, paid up for their delivery and those who sold, delivered their shares. And on the following Saturday there would be "Pay Out", where those who bought got their shares and those who sold got their money. Example: Under the old system, a trader could buy 300 shares of stock XYZ Ltd at Rs 200 on Monday, sell 200 shares of the stock at Rs 220 and maybe buy 300 shares of the same stock on Friday at Rs210. Then, for the settlement the trader would have bought 400 shares (300-200+300) and would have had to pay Rs 79, 000 (60000-44000+63000). So he would have paid up Rs 79,000 on the following Thursday and received 300 shares of the stock on the following Saturday. Trades in the new segment are settled on T+3 basis and every day is taken as separate settlement. The trades done on a day cannot be netted off against those done on the earlier day. Example: The trader's purchase of 300 shares on Monday at Rs200 will get settled the Thursday of the same week. In other words, every day the net outstanding positions will be settled after three days and cannot be squared off for the next day sale if made. The squaring off can be done only on the same day before the closing of trading on that day. The advantages of rolling settlement:
Since the intra-settlement speculation would be weeded out, the price trends can be more realistic. Also unlike in the past, where an investor who sold on Monday to realize a good profit would have realized his money only after a fortnight, with rolling settlement the investor will realize the cash in a week's time.
Example for the terms for call option
Let's use our Satyam call as an example. If Satyam is trading at a price of 500, at the time of expiry it is considered to be trading 'at-the_money'. If it is trading at a price greater than 500, say 510, the call option is considered to be 'in-the_money'. And it is trading at a price less than 500, say 400, the call option is considered to be trading 'out-of-the_money.
Conversely, if it was an Satyam put option we owned at a strike price of 500 and premium of 50, at the time of expiry if the price of Satyam is above 500 the put option it would be considered to be 'out-of-the_money. And if it were trading at a price below 500 say 440, the put option would be considered to be trading 'in-the_money'. If Satyam stock were trading at 500, the put option would be 'at-the_money'.
Intrinsic Value The intrinsic value: is the value of the option if it is exercised today. It can be defined as the amount by which an option is in the money or the price difference between the strike price of underlying asset and the current market price
For call option it is Maximum (Spot Price - Strike Price, 0)
For put option it is Maximum (Strike Price - Spot Price, 0)
The intrinsic value of an option must be a positive number or 0. It can't be negative.
Time Value:
Is defined as the excess of option value over the intrinsic value
Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value.
For example: -- if a Reliance call option is has a strike price of 400 and a premium of 25.
If the market price of Reliance at the time of expiry is Rs 410
Then
Intrinsic value = Max (410-400,0)
= Rs 10
And time value = 25 -10.
= Rs 15.
And if the price is Rs 350 then
Intrinsic value = Max (350-400,0)
= 0
And time value = 25 - 0
=Rs. 25
And if Reliance put option have a strike price of 400 and a premium of 25.
If the market price of Reliance at the time of expiry is Rs 410
Then
Intrinsic value = Max (400-410,0)
= Rs 0
And time value = 25 - 0.
= Rs 25.
And if the price is Rs 380 then
Intrinsic value = Max (400-380,0)
= 20
And time value = 25- 20
=Rs. 5
Factors Influencing the Price of an Option
Factors that can be Quantified: Underlying stock price.
The strike price of the option.
The volatility of the underlying stock.
The time to expiration and.
The risk free interest rate.
Non-Quantifiable Factors:
Market participants' and individuals' varying estimates on the future volatility and performance of the underlying asset's
The effect of supply & demand- both in the options marketplace and in the market for the underlying asset.
The "depth" of the market for that option - the number of transactions and the contract's trading volume on any given day.
The primary influence on an options price is the price of the underlying security. An options price decays each day it is in existence. Further, the closer the option gets to expiration, the faster it decays. The rate of decay is related to the square root of the time remaining. An option with two months remaining decays at twice the speed of a four month option etc.
Volatility
The volatility part of the pricing model is a measure of the range the underlying security is expected to fluctuate over a given period of time. The measurement of volatility is the standard deviation of the daily price changes in the security. The more volatile the underlying security, the greater the price of the option.
There are two kinds of volatility. There is historical volatility; and there is implied volatility. Historical volatility estimates volatility based on past prices. Implied volatility starts with the option price as a given and works backward to ascertain the theoretical value of volatility equal to the market price minus any intrinsic value.
Black Scholes Option Pricing Model
The original breakthrough for option pricing was in the Black-Scholes model 'BSOPM' as it is called is a model to price a call option based on certain variables like time period to expiry, volatility, dividend on the underlying stock etc. These are theoretical values and just give a trader an idea of a fair value of the Option. Speculative view today will need much more than 'BSOPM' to price the Option correctly.
Covered calls and Naked Calls
A call option position when covered by the opposite position, in the underlying instrument is called a covered call. Where as in naked calls the position is not covered.
Example: A writer writes a call on L&T and at the same time holds the share of L&T, so that in case if the buyer exercises the call, he can deliver the stock.
Covered calls are far less risky than naked calls (where there is no opposite position in the underlying), since the worst that can happen is that the investor is required to sell shares already owned at below their market value. But in case of naked call, if the buyer exercises the option, the writer will have to purchase the underlying asset to meet his call obligation and his loss will be the excess of the purchase price over the exercise price of the call reduced by the premium received for writing the call.
The kinds of Nifty options being traded:
The strike prices and expiration dates for traded options are selected by the exchange. For example, NSE may choose to have three expiration months, and five strike prices (1200,1300,1400,1500,1600). There would be two types of options: put and call. This gives a total of 30 distinct traded options (3 × 5 ×2), with 30 distinct order books and prices.
A typical set of option prices is shown in Table below illustrates the intriguing nature of option prices. When Nifty is at 1500, the right to buy Nifty at 1600 one month away is worth little (Rs.13). The buyer of this option puts down Rs.13 when the option is purchased, and this fee is non -refundable. If Nifty turns out to be above 1600 after a month, this option will prove to be valuable. If Nifty proves to be at 1602 after a month, the option will pay Rs.2. Conversely when Nifty is at 1500, the right to sell Nifty at 1400 one month away isn't worth much (Rs.8): this is the "insurance premium " for protecting yourself against a fall in Nifty of worse than a hundred points.
However, when we increase the time to expiration of the option, there is a greater chance that prices can move around, and these same options become more valuable: e.g: the right to sell Nifty at 1600 is worth Rs.25 when we consider a three month horizon (i.e. insurance against a hundred point drop on a three month horizon).
Working of index option :
As with index futures, index options are cash settled.
Table Option prices: some illustrative values
Assumptions: Nifty spot is 1500,Nifty volatility is 25% annualised interest rate
is 10%,Nifty dividend yield is 1.5%. Suppose Nifty is at 1500 on 1 July 2000.Suppose L buys an option which gives him the right to buy Nifty at 1600 from S on 31 Dec 2000.It turns out that this option is worth roughly Rs.90. So a payment of Rs.90 passes from L to S for having this option. The contract specifications of Sensex Options.
BSE's first index options is based on BSE 30 Sensex. The Sensex options would be European style of options i.e. the options would be exercised only on the day of expiry. They will be premium style i.e. the buyer of the option will pay premium to the options writer in cash at the time of entering into the contract. The Premium & Options Settlement Value (difference between Strike & Spot price at the time of expiry), will be quoted in Sensex points. The contract multiplier for Sensex options is INR 100, which means that monetary value of the Premium & Settlement value will be calculated by multiplying the Sensex Points by 100. For e.g. if Premium quoted for a Sensex options is 50 Sensex points, its monetary value would be Rs. 5000 (50*100).
The expiration day for Sensex option is the last Thursday of Contract month. If it is a holiday, the immediately preceding business day will be the expiration day. There will be three contract month series (Near, middle and far) available for trading at any point of time. The settlement value will be the closing value of the Sensex on the expiry day. The tick size for Sensex option is 0.1 Sensex points ( INR 10). This means that the minimum price fluctuation in the value of the option premium can be 0.1. In Rupee terms this translates to minimum price fluctuation of Rs 10. ( Tick Size * Multiplier =0.1* 100).
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